In the face of declining consumer spending throughout the United States, the European retail landscape is not without its own share of troubles. As reported by Chris Hare, a senior economist, on December 3rd, European households stand at a crossroads in their consumption behavior. Despite a notable increase in real incomes, household expenditures have been largely stagnant, leaving savings rates at persistently high levels. Hare pointed out that real income growth in the Eurozone and the UK had surpassed 3% year-on-year. However, this positive economic indicator has not translated into corresponding growth in household spending, which has remained almost flat. Three main factors are contributing to this stagnation: the prevailing high-interest rate environment, a decrease in household wealth, and persistently low consumer confidence. Looking ahead, predictions suggest that Europe's household savings rate could soon stabilize. By the years 2025 and 2026, it is expected that household spending will begin to align with income growth, with projected year-on-year increases hovering just above 1%. The trend of frugality among Europeans appears to be intensifying. The phenomenon referred to as “continental thrift” emerged during the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, with European households demonstrating significantly higher savings rates compared to their American counterparts, who saw lower savings. This behavior has only compounded over time, particularly as European incomes rise and inflation gradually cools. Yet despite these favorable conditions, household spending growth has either remained stagnant or even slowed down, with the UK exhibiting this trend more prominently. In essence, European households are saving at levels even higher than those observed before the pandemic, reflecting a cautious approach towards consumption. Data indicates that the surplus savings stock in Europe continues to increase, while similar metrics in the United States are nearly non-existent. The report pointed out the significant economic risks associated with households cutting back on spending. An increase of just one percentage point in the savings rate within the Eurozone can translate into a GDP drop of more than 0.5%, with inflation concurrently declining by roughly 0.2 percentage points, and vice versa. This creates a situation where shifts in consumers’ spending habits could profoundly influence the monetary policy outlook for the Euro. Delving deeper into the causes of sluggish consumer spending across Europe, the report analyzed through econometric modeling that the “continental thrift” primarily stems from the three aforementioned factors: high-interest rates, diminishing household wealth, and decreased consumer confidence. Regarding interest rates, estimates suggest that the rate hikes initiated since late 2021 have increased the Eurozone household savings rate by approximately 2 percentage points. The wealth effect also plays a crucial role; decreasing household wealth could potentially raise the Eurozone’s savings rate by one percentage point, while affecting the UK by about two percentage points. Furthermore, since mid last year, the effect of waning consumer confidence has led to a slowdown in household consumption growth by around 1 percentage point. Specifically, while high-interest rates have boosted net interest income from investments, households tend not to spend their interest earnings extensively. Conversely, households burdened by rising mortgage payments tend to tighten their belts significantly. As a result, the "cash flow" effect from mortgages both curtails spending and elevates the savings rate. The report anticipates that this cash flow effect is beginning to ease, with expectations for the mortgage impact on household spending to neutralize in the coming year. As for the deterioration of household wealth, it is mainly attributed to falling bond prices after interest rate hikes, which have led to a decline in the valuation of defined benefit pension schemes. However, the report suggests that this decline should not significantly adversely affect real consumption. Consumer confidence remains another key issue, with surveys conducted this year still failing to completely bounce back to pre-pandemic levels, highlighting an ongoing cautious stance among consumers. This hesitancy stems largely from two influences. First, the "shock" effect stemming from energy shortages has prompted European households to seek increased savings to safeguard against potential future fluctuations in energy prices. Second, political uncertainties in key countries like Germany, France, and the UK, coupled with the uncertain prospects of the upcoming US administration, contribute to the prevailing climate of consumer caution. Looking to the future, there is an expectation that savings rates will stabilize shortly, which may mitigate further cautiousness in household spending. Analysts project that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will likely reduce interest rates significantly within the next year, which could help lower savings rates, ease repayment pressures, and stimulate both asset prices and overall financial wealth. Thus, it is anticipated that the savings rate will soon reach a point of stability. As household spending growth is projected to align more closely with income growth, the trend of thrift in European households is not expected to accelerate further. However, this doesn’t imply an impending wave of consumer spending. Income growth is anticipated to slow down to around 1%, suggesting that while consumer sentiment may improve, any resultant surge in spending will be measured and prudently handled by households adjusting to the new economic landscape.